Rio Tinto confirmed it will not proceed with a potential merger or business combination with Glencore after concluding that no agreement could be reached that would create value for its shareholders. The announcement effectively ends what could have become the largest consolidation deal in the global mining industry.
By Panorama Minero
The decision was communicated shortly before the expiration of the deadline set following Rio Tinto’s January 8, 2026 announcement, in which the company disclosed it was evaluating a possible acquisition of Glencore through a merger of some or all of their businesses, potentially structured as an all-share transaction.
Had it moved forward, the combination would have created the world’s largest mining company, with a market capitalization exceeding US$200 billion. This marks the third failed merger attempt between the two groups, following previous approaches in 2014 and 2024.
Rio Tinto stated that the evaluation was conducted in line with the strategic framework presented during its December 2025 Capital Markets Day, which prioritizes long-term value creation and leading shareholder returns.
Copper at the Core of the Strategic Equation
Glencore’s board acknowledged the announcement and confirmed that no agreement was reached on the terms of a potential transaction. According to the company, the structure under discussion would have allowed Rio Tinto to retain the Chair and CEO roles in the combined entity, along with a defined pro forma ownership stake.
Glencore argued that the proposed terms did not adequately reflect its relative contribution to a combined group, particularly its copper business and growth project pipeline, nor did they include a control premium or fully account for potential synergies.
HSBC analysts estimated that a transaction of this scale would likely have required an average premium of around 30%, potentially granting Glencore shareholders approximately 38% of the combined company.
The negotiations unfolded amid increasing strategic focus on copper. Industry projections suggest global copper demand could grow by roughly 50% by 2040, driven by electrification, energy transition technologies and the expansion of artificial intelligence infrastructure.
Global Implications and Lithium Expansion
By stepping away from the merger, Rio Tinto preserves the current competitive balance across key commodity markets including copper, iron ore, coal, zinc and transition minerals.
The decision reinforces the company’s commitment to organic growth and disciplined capital allocation. A key component of that strategy is the recent acquisition of Arcadium Lithium, strengthening Rio Tinto’s position in the lithium value chain.
In Argentina, the company continues advancing the Rincón lithium project in Salta province, focused on lithium carbonate production from brine resources.
Glencore reiterated its intention to pursue an independent strategy centered on its diversified commodity portfolio, operational optimization and copper-focused growth.
In a market defined by constrained supply and structural demand growth for critical minerals, the collapse of the merger talks underscores the intensity of competition among major miners to secure long-term exposure to copper and lithium.
