The global lithium market faces a challenge driven less by the geological availability of the resource than by the ability to convert those resources into production. According to the latest report from Argentina’s National Mining Secretariat, securing long-term lithium supply will depend primarily on accelerating mine production rather than increasing the global resource and reserve base.
By Panorama Minero
The scale of identified resources provides a clear picture of the current landscape. According to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), global lithium reserves reached 196.9 million tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) in 2025, compared with annual demand of 1.5 million tonnes. In addition, another 798.3 million tonnes of LCE have been identified as resources that remain unextracted.
The figures become even more significant when viewed against developments over the past decade. Between 2016 and 2024, 6.7 million tonnes of LCE were extracted, while global reserves increased by 122 million tonnes over the same period.
According to the official analysis, this trend has maintained a reserve horizon of more than 125 years at observed consumption rates, at least since 2016.
The challenge, therefore, is shifting away from the existence of the resource itself and toward the speed at which new supply can be brought to market.
Exploration: Lower Spending, but Still Above Historical Averages
Lithium exploration is also undergoing an adjustment following the strong price cycle recorded between late 2021 and 2022. The price boom stimulated exploration activity and enabled reserves to grow at a faster pace than lithium consumption.
In 2025, however, global lithium exploration spending fell by more than 66% year over year. The decline was associated with excess supply, slower electric vehicle sales growth and tighter access to credit.
Even so, exploration investment remained above the average recorded since the 2022 price boom.
The challenge over the coming years will therefore be to transform known resources into producing projects, while technology continues to play an increasingly important role in raising extraction and processing volumes.
Innovation, particularly in new production and extraction technologies, is emerging as one of the tools available to expand supply without relying exclusively on the discovery of new resources.
Australia Leads Mining While China Dominates Processing
The global lithium supply chain is characterized by a pronounced geographic specialization. On one side are the countries that concentrate raw material production, primarily through hard-rock concentrates and brines. On the other are the economies that dominate chemical processing and the manufacturing of battery materials and components.
At the mining stage, Australia remained the world’s largest producer in 2025, with output of 535,000 tonnes of LCE, equivalent to 32% of global production.
Argentina ranked fifth, producing 138,000 tonnes of LCE, equivalent to 8.2% of global production and making it South America’s second-largest producer behind Chile.
The picture changes when lithium chemical processing, mainly carbonate and hydroxide, is considered.
In 2025, China produced 1.2 million tonnes of LCE in lithium chemicals, accounting for 72.1% of global output. China also processes virtually all of the lithium ore mined in Australia.
This division between mining and refining creates two distinct segments with different cost structures, commercial dynamics and margins.
Argentina Accelerates and Seeks to Climb the Global Rankings
Argentina’s performance stands out as one of the key developments in the international market. In 2025, the country produced 133,000 tonnes of LCE in lithium chemicals, primarily lithium carbonate, equivalent to 7.9% of global production.
In August, Argentina’s mining exports reached a new record for the first eight months of a year, totaling US$6.059 billion. The figure represented year-over-year growth of 65.7% and left the sector just US$15 million short of the full-year record set in 2025, when mineral exports totaled US$6.074 billion over 12 months.
Mining exports totaled US$652 million in August, up 43.3% year over year. The increase was driven primarily by metallic minerals and strong growth in lithium.
Lithium exports reached US$157 million in August, up 134.2% year over year. The figure also represented an all-time record for lithium exports in the month of August.
Lithium once again ranked as the country’s second-largest mining export during the month and accounted for 24.1% of total mining exports.
The year-to-date figures are even more significant. Between January and August, lithium exports reached US$1.467 billion, up 190.5% year over year. Lithium accounted for 24.2% of total mining exports and recorded its strongest-ever performance for the first eight months of a year.
Growth was not driven by prices alone. Lithium export volumes increased 56.8% during the first eight months of 2026, according to official data from the Mining Secretariat.
Because Argentina processes all of its mined lithium domestically, lithium chemical output is broadly equivalent to mine production. On that basis, Argentina ranked as the world’s third-largest producer of lithium chemicals, behind only China and Chile.
The report also identifies Argentina as the fastest-growing producer in 2025, supported by a diversified investment pipeline, increasing adoption of direct lithium extraction (DLE) technologies and a regulatory framework regarded as flexible. Under these conditions, projections cited by the Mining Secretariat indicate that Argentina could overtake Chile to become the world’s third-largest lithium producer by 2029.
The projection is significant because Chile currently holds the world’s largest lithium reserves. However, the report notes that the country has lost momentum relative to its main competitors, partly because of the characteristics of its regulatory framework and delays in defining a new sector policy.
Australia, despite retaining first place, is also showing a relative loss of momentum. Its geological and regulatory advantages, together with its integration with China’s refining industry, continue to support its leadership and are expected to keep the country at the top of the market through 2035.
China, meanwhile, has gained ground as a mine producer and displaced Chile from second place globally. Its strategy combines the development of lepidolite deposits, government support and strong vertical integration across companies, from lithium chemical production through batteries and electric vehicles.
Global Lithium Demand Grew 26.8% in 2025
As supply adjusts to the market’s changing configuration, demand continues to expand. In 2025, global lithium consumption reached 1.5 million tonnes of LCE, compared with 1.2 million tonnes in 2024, representing year-over-year growth of 26.8%.
Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) remained the largest source of lithium demand. However, other segments began gaining market share at a faster pace.
Battery energy storage systems, or BESS, accounted for 24.3% of global demand, while electric commercial vehicles (ECVs) represented another 7.7%. Combined, PEVs, BESS and ECVs accounted for 84.3% of global lithium consumption in 2025.
The shift is significant because it introduces new sources of demand growth beyond passenger electric vehicles.
China remains the largest PEV market and accounted for more than one-third of global lithium demand from this segment.
However, projections for the next decade point to greater geographic diversification. According to S&P forecasts cited by the Mining Secretariat, global lithium demand could more than double to 3.5 million tonnes of LCE by 2035.
China would remain the largest consumer, while the United States and European Union are expected to increase their relative shares.
Electric Vehicles Lose Momentum, but New Demand Drivers Emerge
The electric vehicle market continues to expand, although at a different pace from that seen during the early years of growth.
Global PEV sales exceeded 16.5 million units in 2025, up 28.6% year over year. Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) accounted for 62.8% of the total, with plug-in hybrids making up the remainder.
The slowdown is linked, among other factors, to reductions in subsidies in China and the United States, two of the main drivers of sales growth alongside the European Union.
China accounted for 64.4% of global PEV sales in 2025. The Chinese government determined that, after new-energy vehicles surpassed 40% of the domestic market, the industry had reached a sufficient level of maturity to reduce permanent fiscal support.
The United States, meanwhile, moved toward an economic policy focused on reducing the federal deficit and once again encouraging traditional hydrocarbon production.
By 2035, S&P projections indicate that PEV sales could nearly triple from 2024 levels and exceed 47 million units.
Growth in the new-energy vehicle market would therefore become progressively less dependent on fiscal subsidies and increasingly driven by industrial and market factors.
BESS and Electric Trucks Open New Markets
The expansion of battery energy storage systems and commercial electric vehicles represents one of the most significant changes in lithium demand. Since 2022, both segments have begun to grow faster than the PEV market.
The BESS market accelerated particularly sharply from the third quarter of 2025. In China, projections cited in the report point to growth of between 40% and 60% in 2026, accompanied by an increase in BESS’s share of total battery production.
Heavy-duty electric vehicles represent another expanding segment.
Between January and November 2025, 183,370 heavy-duty electric trucks were sold in China, compared with 63,106 units during the same period in 2024. This represented year-over-year growth of 190.6%.
Heavy-duty trucks are expected to maintain a rapid growth trajectory, while PEVs would continue expanding at a more moderate pace.
The trend marks a turning point for the industry: growth in lithium demand is no longer dependent exclusively on the pace of passenger vehicle electrification.
Lithium Surplus Narrows as the Market Looks Toward 2033
The balance between supply and demand is also beginning to shift. According to S&P, the global lithium carbonate surplus declined by 16.2% in 2025, following several years characterized by sharp price corrections and the gradual absorption of excess production.
Growth in BESS helped reduce the surplus even as passenger electric vehicles lost some momentum. This was compounded by substantial cuts to exploration budgets and the postponement or cancellation of high-cost greenfield projects during the period of lower prices.
As a result, much of the supply currently entering the market is coming from lower-cost brownfield expansions and mature projects rather than entirely new operations.
According to S&P projections cited in the report, the global lithium market will continue to reduce its surplus over the next decade, but the balance is not expected to turn negative until 2033.
From that point, the market would enter a deficit, with a maximum projected shortfall of 154,000 tonnes of LCE in 2035.
A comparison with demand scenarios from the International Energy Agency adds another dimension. Under the high-demand scenario, associated with stronger clean-energy adoption requirements, unmet demand would begin to emerge in 2030.
Under the stated policies scenario, the deficit would begin in 2033, although at a considerably smaller scale.
The analysis therefore suggests that lithium supply constraints are not currently driven by geological scarcity. The challenge lies in the time required to convert resources and reserves into productive capacity, finance new projects, expand existing operations and develop technologies capable of increasing production.
In a market where demand could more than double in less than a decade, execution speed will become an increasingly decisive factor.
Litio en Sudamérica: Global Lithium Debates Come to Jujuy
Many of these issues will be at the center of Litio en Sudamérica 2026, the international seminar organized by Panorama Minero, which will hold its 15th edition on October 7–8 in Jujuy.
The international landscape will be addressed from several perspectives over the two-day event. One of the central panels, “International Outlook: Positioning Amid the New Geography of Critical Minerals. Capital, Financing and Partnerships to Turn Resources Into Tangible Growth,” will bring together Erik Høeg, European Union Ambassador to Argentina; Felipe Fuentes of MIGA–World Bank Group; León Cavalo of the French Development Agency; Frédéric Maier of the European Union; and Saúl Feilbogen of Vitale, Manoff & Feilbogen Abogados. The panel will be moderated by Natacha Izquierdo of Abeceb and Ignacio Celorrio of Lithium Argentina.
The relationship between geopolitics and security of supply will also be at the center of the panel “Argentina–United States: Critical Minerals Amid a Strategic Relationship,” featuring Fernando Ciácera of Argentina’s National Mining Secretariat; Gabriela Aguilar of the Argentina–Texas Chamber of Commerce; and Katrien Hinderdael of the U.S. Department of State. The discussion will focus on security of supply, investment and new partnerships.
The global value chain will then move downstream toward processing and batteries. Yang Jianyu, Vice President of CNGR South America, will deliver a keynote on lithium, costs and integration across the LFP value chain, presented in Chinese with consecutive interpretation into Spanish.
The Asian perspective will also feature a dedicated session with Andrew Leyland and José Hofer of SC Insights, who will examine the outlook from Asian markets and the differences between lithium development models across Latin America.
The first day will close with Joe Lowry, founder of Global Lithium and author of Lithium Confidential: Confessions of a Corporate Misfit. In a fireside chat moderated by Clint Van Marrewijk, co-founder of Zelandez, Lowry will discuss Argentina’s strategic role, market challenges and the relationships that could shape the next decade.
In this way, the international debates surrounding supply, demand, financing, critical minerals, China, the United States, batteries and emerging technologies will come together in Jujuy, bringing industry leaders and international specialists into the discussion.
