The average price of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) could reach US$21,363 per tonne in 2027, representing an increase of nearly 10% from the roughly US$19,500 per tonne currently seen in international markets.
By Panorama Minero
The figures come from the Chilean Copper Commission’s (Cochilco) “Bimonthly Lithium Market Report: June-July 2026,” which tracks CIF Asia lithium carbonate prices, primarily for battery-grade material. This international benchmark covers deliveries to ports in China, South Korea and Japan and includes freight and insurance costs.
The report notes that the lithium market shifted from a recovery driven by supply constraints to a moderate correction beginning in mid-May. The spot price of lithium carbonate reached US$19,525 per tonne on August 19, down 12.2% from US$22,250 per tonne on May 13.
However, the August price highlighted in the report was 106% above the 2025 average of US$9,459 per tonne. Together with 2024, 2025 recorded some of the lowest lithium prices of the past decade. The sharp decline in 2024-2025 was associated with a significant increase in global supply and moderate growth in Chinese electric vehicle demand.
Lithium: What Will Happen to Supply?
Cochilco’s report notes that global lithium supply has been strengthened by “the restart of production at some projects in Australia and the conditional resumption of exports from Zimbabwe, which reduced the risk of shortages.”
In China, electric vehicle sales, including exports, increased 9.6% between January and July to 9 million units, according to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers cited by Cochilco. By contrast, domestic retail sales, which more directly reflect immediate demand from Chinese consumers, declined 12.5%.
The report reviewed by Panorama Minero also raised its estimate for the 2027 lithium market surplus from 9,300 to 18,900 tonnes of LCE, although it still describes the global supply-demand balance for that year as “close to equilibrium.”
For 2028, however, Cochilco warns that the global lithium supply surplus could range between 39,100 and 98,000 tonnes of LCE, a scenario that could limit a sustained upward trajectory in prices.
The report also cites the International Energy Agency (IEA), which noted that lithium prices more than doubled as a result of the combination of demand from the battery energy storage sector and constrained supply.
As part of the recent addition of new supply to the global market, Cochilco highlights Eramet Eramine’s Centenario-Ratones project, which by mid-year had reached “a rate equivalent to 90% of its nameplate capacity” and is targeting close to 100% by the end of 2026.
Located in Salta, Centenario-Ratones has an installed capacity of 24,000 tonnes per year and uses direct lithium extraction (DLE) technology at an elevation of more than 3,800 meters in Argentina’s Puna region. With future expansions, the French company’s plans contemplate increasing production capacity to 150,000 tonnes per year.
