With an estimated US$15 billion in investment, Argentina could increase its lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) production from the 115,000 tonnes recorded in 2025 to more than 407,000 tonnes per year by 2035. However, achieving that scenario will require maintaining stable rules, improving competitiveness, developing infrastructure, and continuing to strengthen social licence, according to Nadav Rajzman, Chief Economist at the Argentine Chamber of Mining Companies (CAEM).
By Panorama Minero
Argentina's lithium industry is undergoing one of the most transformative periods in its history. Following an investment cycle that significantly expanded installed capacity in just a few years, the focus has now shifted toward consolidating the growth of operating projects while creating the conditions needed to attract a new wave of investment capable of positioning the country among the world's leading lithium producers over the next decade.
Projections developed by Francisco Abramovich, Head of the Mining Department at the Argentine Industrial Union (UIA), and Nadav Rajzman, Chief Economist at the Argentine Chamber of Mining Companies (CAEM), and presented during the seminar "Opportunities and Challenges for Industry in the Mining Value Chain", outline a strong growth scenario. The study estimates nearly US$15 billion in investments for new operations and expansions, which would increase installed capacity from 201,000 tonnes of LCE in 2025 to 517,000 tonnes by 2035, while actual production would rise from 115,000 to approximately 407,000 tonnes per year.
In an interview with Panorama Minero, Rajzman discussed the evolution of Argentina's lithium industry, the challenges that remain ahead, and the conditions he considers essential to sustain the growth of an industry that is becoming increasingly strategic for the global energy transition.
"The sector has already proven it can grow"
According to Rajzman, the industry's performance over recent years demonstrates its ability to expand when projects are adequately financed and investment conditions are in place. In that regard, he recalled that between 2016 and 2022 Argentina had only two lithium operations, producing an average of 32,000 tonnes of LCE annually. Since then, the sector has invested US$7.613 billion to increase installed capacity beyond 200,000 tonnes of LCE, ending 2025 with actual production of 116,000 tonnes, a figure that, he noted, "will continue to grow as plants advance through their ramp-up processes."
The economist believes this expansion represents only the first stage of Argentina's potential. Looking ahead, he pointed out that there are "at least 17 new projects that could more than double current capacity," although achieving that objective would require investments estimated at US$15 billion.
Competing for capital, the real challenge
Although Argentina hosts some of the world's highest-quality lithium brine resources, Rajzman warned that resource quality alone is no longer enough to secure investment. He stressed that Argentina "has world-class lithium geological resources and holds a prominent position in the global industry," while emphasizing that "resource quality does not guarantee new investments," as many countries are competing to attract the capital needed to develop mining projects.
He also noted that Argentina ranked as the world's fifth-largest lithium producer in 2025 and holds the fourth-largest economically recoverable reserves, confirming its significant geological potential. Nevertheless, he argued that "the challenge is to remain competitive in order to secure those investments," particularly at a time when mining companies compare projects across multiple jurisdictions before allocating capital.
The impact of RIGI and the challenges that remain
Asked about the factors that currently have the greatest influence on investment decisions, Rajzman identified macroeconomic stability and regulatory predictability as the most important. According to him, companies evaluate numerous variables when deciding where to invest, including "macroeconomic stability and regulatory predictability," two areas in which Argentina has historically faced significant difficulties.
Within that context, he believes Argentina's Large Investment Incentive Regime (RIGI) "played a decisive role by providing guarantees against risks that historically affected the sector, such as foreign exchange restrictions," while also improving the country's tax competitiveness.
However, he warned that important challenges remain. In particular, he noted that Argentina "continues to have a high and distortionary tax burden compared to other mining jurisdictions," especially due to export duties and provincial Gross Turnover Tax.
Infrastructure, suppliers and human capital
Beyond macroeconomic conditions, Rajzman considers infrastructure development essential to sustain the projected growth. According to him, companies also assess the logistical and energy infrastructure required to develop projects, as many of the regions where mining activity is expanding still need improvements to reduce costs and accelerate project execution.
He also highlighted progress made in terms of social licence, stating that "Argentina has achieved significant progress thanks to the joint efforts of companies, provincial governments and local communities," which he considers fundamental to ensuring the long-term continuity of mining projects.
Regarding local development, Rajzman noted that Argentina has a highly qualified workforce, although the expected expansion will require training more specialized professionals. A similar situation exists among local suppliers. In his view, Argentina already has "a very well-developed industrial and services base," although many companies still need to deepen their understanding of mining standards and technical requirements in order to fully integrate into upcoming projects.
Production could increase by 254% over the next decade
The projections prepared by CAEM and the UIA illustrate the scale of the opportunity facing Argentina's lithium industry. Between 2025 and 2035, national lithium production could rise from 115,000 to 407,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent per year, representing cumulative growth of 254% and an absolute increase of 292,000 tonnes.
The study also notes that this expansion will not occur in a linear fashion. Installed capacity is expected to grow faster than actual production due to the lengthy ramp-up processes characteristic of lithium operations. As a result, while production represented just over 57% of installed capacity in 2025, that figure is projected to approach 79% by 2035, reflecting the operational maturation of new projects.
For Rajzman, the country's geological potential is beyond question. The key uncertainty is whether Argentina will be able to maintain a sufficiently competitive environment to attract the capital required to turn these projections into productive reality. Only then, he believes, will the country be able to fully capitalize on an opportunity that combines world-class geological resources with global lithium demand expected to continue growing over the coming decades.
