The global trade war ignited by Donald Trump’s tariff announcements has intensified the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset. As a result, the yellow metal has soared more than 24% so far this year, prompting Goldman Sachs and UBS to revise their price forecasts upward. Gold ETFs now manage a record-breaking US$345 billion in assets.
By Panorama Minero
On Friday, April 11, Goldman Sachs raised its year-end gold price target to US$3,700 per ounce — the bank’s third upward revision this year, and the most aggressive so far, implying a 12% increase from the previous forecast.
The first upward revision came in February when Goldman reversed its skepticism over gold breaching the US$3,000 mark, setting a target of US$3,100. As of Tuesday, April 15, gold was trading at US$3,237.
The second revision followed in late March, raising the year-end target to US$3,300. On both occasions, Goldman analysts cited robust central bank demand and strong inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
The most recent revision reflects the resilience of gold following the sell-off triggered by Trump’s tariff announcement, which temporarily drove the metal down by as much as 5% as investors covered losses across other asset classes.
UBS also raised its 2025 gold forecast to US$3,500 per ounce from US$3,200, citing an increasingly compelling case for gold in a world grappling with tariff uncertainty, slower growth, higher inflation, and sustained geopolitical risk.
“The case for increasing gold allocations has never been stronger,” said Joni Teves, analyst at UBS. The shifting global trade, economic and political landscape is reinforcing gold’s role as a safe-haven asset, she added.
Gold’s Outperformance
Despite a wave of speculative selling earlier in April, which initially shook the market, gold ETF holdings have risen amid growing recession fears. According to Goldman analysts, gold has since recouped all losses and recently surged to a new high of US$3,245 per ounce. With over 24% gains in 2025, it stands as one of the best-performing assets globally.
Flows Into Gold
London Metal Exchange data shows that global physically backed gold ETFs took in US$8.6 billion in March alone, totaling US$21 billion for Q1 — equivalent to 226 metric tons of gold. This marks the second-highest quarterly inflow ever, trailing only Q2 2020, when the pandemic drove a record US$24 billion (433 tons) into gold ETFs.
As prices soared, gold ETF assets under management hit a record US$345 billion, up 13% month-over-month and 28% quarter-over-quarter. Total holdings rose to 3,445 tons by the end of March — a 92-ton increase for the month and 226 tons for the quarter, reaching the highest level since May 2023 and nearing the October 2020 record of 3,915 tons.
Who’s Buying
U.S. investors led the charge, with March inflows of US$6.5 billion — 76% of the monthly total — and US$12.9 billion for the quarter. Analysts attribute the surge to rising prices, steady yields, a weakening dollar, and tariff uncertainty driven by trade tensions.
In Europe, the U.K., Switzerland, and Germany led regional gains, adding US$1 billion in March and US$4.6 billion in Q1.
In Asia, China and Japan dominated demand, contributing US$1 billion in March and US$3.3 billion for the quarter. Australia and South Africa followed with nearly US$100 million in inflows.
India saw modest outflows, ending an 11-month streak of net inflows, which analysts interpret as profit-taking amid elevated prices.
