The global copper market is experiencing sustained demand growth alongside emerging supply constraints, according to a technical report produced by the National Directorate for Mining Promotion and Economics of Argentina’s Secretariat of Mining. The study reviews demand trends, geological availability of the metal, market balance and price dynamics over the medium and long term.
By Panorama Minero
The report on the global copper market outlines the metal’s role across key industrial sectors. Copper is widely used in construction, transport, manufacturing and power infrastructure, as well as in applications linked to electric vehicles, renewable energy systems, data centers and digital infrastructure.
According to the study, global copper demand reached 28.6 million metric tons in 2024, marking a 3.9% year-on-year increase. China accounted for roughly 60% of total global consumption. Looking ahead, the report projects global demand growth of around 30% by 2035.
Global copper supply structure
The report estimates that global copper reserves totaled 980 million metric tons in 2024, maintaining an average availability horizon of more than 35 years, consistent with trends observed since the mid-1990s.
Chile, Peru and Australia collectively hold approximately 40% of the world’s copper reserves, while Argentina is estimated to contain 17.2 million metric tons.
In terms of production, the report indicates that 2024 recorded:
- 28.3 million metric tons of refined copper
- 19.9 million metric tons of smelted copper
- 22.6 million metric tons of mine copper
Annual production growth ranged between 1.5% and 3.3%, depending on the processing stage.
Geological availability and operational constraints
The study indicates that global geological availability of copper remains sufficient, although supply expansion faces operational constraints including declining ore grades, delays in project development and logistical and environmental limitations.
Within the global production structure, Chile remains the largest producer of mine copper, accounting for 24.3% of total global output.
China dominates the downstream segment, holding 43.9% of global smelting capacity and 47.4% of refining capacity.
The report also notes expanding refining capacity in countries such as the Democratic Republic of Congo, Indonesia and Vietnam.
Demand trends and sectoral shifts
The analysis identifies accelerating global copper consumption since 2018, linked to expanding electricity infrastructure and electrification processes in several major economies.
India has recorded one of the fastest increases in copper consumption, with growth of 63.8% between 2015 and 2024, while China reported a nearly 49.8% increase over the same period.
At the sector level, approximately 90% of copper demand in 2024 came from traditional uses, including transport systems, electrical grids and conventional energy infrastructure.
Projections indicate that electrification-related technologies will gradually increase their share of consumption by 2035, with electric vehicles representing 8.7% of global demand, solar energy 7.9%, and wind power 3%.
The report also estimates that global copper consumption could approach 36 million metric tons in the medium term.
Market balance
The document identifies structural tightness in the copper market since 2018. In 2020, the market registered a deficit of 379,000 metric tons, the largest imbalance of the past decade.
Constraints in the availability of copper concentrates reduced treatment and refining charges (TC/RC), affecting smelter margins and limiting cathode production. Part of the supply gap has been offset by increased recycling.
Projections included in the report indicate that the gap between refined copper supply and demand could reach 9.9 million metric tons by 2035.
In parallel, deficits could reach 1.5 million metric tons in concentrates and 924,000 metric tons in refined copper.
Copper price outlook
Between 2015 and 2024, copper prices increased from US$2.5 per pound to US$4.2 per pound, reflecting tightening market conditions.
For the period 2025 to 2035, the report references an average projected price of around US$4.8 per pound under a conservative scenario.
In higher-demand scenarios, global copper consumption could approach 50 million metric tons by 2050, placing additional pressure on supply chains.
Argentina’s position in the global copper sector
Fernando Ciacera, National Director for Mining Promotion and Economics, stated that “Argentina has a historic opportunity in the global copper market, a metal that is central to modern industrial development.”
The report indicates that the country currently has nine copper projects at different development stages, with potential investments exceeding US$28 billion.
According to the study’s projections, Argentina’s copper production could exceed 1.5 million metric tons by 2035, representing roughly 6% of global supply.
Ciacera added that global copper demand could grow around 30% by 2035, and noted that the development of these projects could generate annual exports exceeding US$17 billion.
